Monday, December 14, 2009

Introduction to Forex Trading


FOREX is the world’s largest and most liquid trading market. In our opinion ,FOREX is one of the best home business you can ever venture in. Even though regular people have had the opportunity to take part in trading foreign currencies for speculations (in the same way banks and large corporations do) since 1998, it is just now becoming the cool, hip, new "thing" to talk about at parties, business events, and other social gatherings.
Even though it has been somewhat of a loosely guarded secret, every day more and more investors are turning to the all-electronic world of FOREX trading because of what they perceive as its numerous benefits & advantages over traditional trading vehicles, like stocks, bonds and commodities.
But, still, whenever something seems new or is just becoming a part of social conversation, news articles, and water cooler gossip, misconceptions have to be overcome, the mind has to be open and the slate has to be clear for starting out fresh with the CORRECT information.
So, in this article, it is my attempt to give you some solid, but not over-detailed, information on just what the heck "FX" (FOREX) means, what it is, and why it exists.
Here's an explanation (one I feel you'll appreciate) of what FOREX is and how a bunch of traders, operate in this market
The Foreign Exchange Market, also referred to the "FOREX" or "FX" market, is the spot (cash) market for currency.
But, don't mistake FX as trading the futures market, where you buy a contract to purchase a particular currency at a future price in time.
So, you're probably wondering where it's at ... or ... how to access the FX market?
The answer is: FX Trading is not bound to any one trading floor and is not centralized on an exchange, as with the stock and futures markets. The FX market is considered an Over-the-Counter (OTC) or 'Interbank' market, due to the fact that the entire market is run electronically, within a network of banks, continuously over a 24-hour period.
Yes, if that's the first time you've heard about an all-electronic market, I know this may sound somewhat intriguing to you.
Here's what you are actually trading when you participate in the Foreign Exchange (FOREX) market:
Essentially, like the large banks who use the FX market to protect themselves from the fluctuating exchange rate of different currencies, as an investor, what a FX trader is doing is simultaneously exchanging one countries currency for another. So, in actuality, they're electronically trading a currency-pair and the price that is quoted to us is the exchange rate between the two currencies.
In other words, simply the quoted price is how many of the one currency is worth 1 of the other currency.
Example:
EUR/USD last trade 1.3680 - One Euro is worth $1.3680 US dollars.The first currency (in this example, the EURO) is referred to as the base currency and the second (/USD) as the counter or quote currency.
The FOREX has a DAILY trading volume of around $1.5 trillion dollars - 30 times larger than the combined volume of all U.S. equity markets.
The FOREX plays a vital role in the world economy and there will always be a tremendous need for the FOREX. International trade increases as technology and communication increases. As long as there is international trade, there will be a FOREX market. The FX market has to exist so a country like Japan can sell products in the United States and be able to receive Japanese Yen in exchange for US Dollar.
There's plenty of opportunities using FOREX for plenty of traders that use the right trading techniques / tactics that will allow them enter this market.

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*“The Views and opinions represented in the provided website links and resources are not controlled by the introducer or the FCM. Further, the introducer and the FCM are not responsible for their availability, content, or delivery of services.”*
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FOREX-Sterling down vs dollar, euro on UK GDP shock


* UK data casts doubt on prospect of synchronized recovery
* Euro zone data shows bloc's recovery generally on track
* Euro holds near $1.50 but retreats from 14-week high (Updates prices, adds comment, adds detail)
By Steven C. Johnson
NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The dollar and euro soared against sterling on Friday after data showing the UK economy was still mired in recession stunned investors who had expected it to return to growth.
The pound shed more than 3 cents against the dollar as it fell from a six-week high after the British government said the economy contracted 0.4 percent between July and September.
The euro also gained against sterling, supported partly by data that suggested the euro zone recovery is gathering pace, but retreated slightly from a fresh 14-month high at $1.5061.
The UK data quashed hopes that the downturn there was ending and rekindled talk that the Bank of England will have to extend an emergency asset-purchasing program next month.
And coming after relatively dovish remarks from Canadian and Swedish central banks this week, it cast doubt on the prospect of a synchronized recovery in developed economies.
"It was a pretty horrific report from the UK," said BNY Mellon currency strategist Michael Woolfolk. "The market had been expecting to see all the major economies recover in the third quarter, and this was a bucket of cold water for us."
The pound was last down 1.7 percent at $1.6340 , far from a six-week peak near $1.67 touched earlier. The euro rose 1.6 percent to 92.44 pence .
For more on UK GDP, which posted its sixth straight quarter of contraction, the longest stretch on record, see [ID:nLN250789]. For a graphic showing UK GDP growth, click here: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/109/UK_Q3GDP1009.gif
Sterling's sharp fall helped keep the dollar in positive territory against a basket of currencies <.DXY>. The euro was little changed at $1.5014 . It hit $1.5061 earlier.
YEN PRESSURED, EURO RETAINS MOMENTUM
The euro has climbed more than 7 percent against the dollar this year, breaking above the psychologically significant $1.50 level this week as markets brace for the Federal Reserve to hold U.S. interest at record lows well into next year.
Late Thursday, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said the Fed isn't worried about inflation right now but is monitoring it closely.
A survey released Friday showing that sales of previously owned U.S. houses hit a two-year high in September briefly boosted U.S. stocks, but economists say a weak labor market will continue to drag on the economy in the months ahead.[ID:nN2390489]
Woolfolk said some large speculative bets against the dollar had been toned down on Friday now that the $1.50 level has been breached.
But London-based Rabobank strategist Jeremy Stretch said "markets will use dips to buy (the euro) at better levels."
The dollar rose to 0.6 percent to 92.04 yen , a one-month high, as the spread between 10-year U.S. and Japanese government bond yields widened in favor of the dollar. That makes U.S. bonds more attractive to Japanese investors.
The yen also suffered after Japan's banking minister said the country needed a second extra budget worth around 10 trillion yen, feeding expectations of higher government debt.
Earlier Friday, euro zone purchasing managers indexes and the Ifo index of German business morale showed the bloc's economic recovery to be generally on track. [ID:nLN608219].
It was something of a mixed bag, however, with the PMIs well above forecasts but the Ifo numbers not quite as robust as analysts had expected.
Boris Schlossberg, director of research at GFT Forex in New York, said the outlook for the broader euro zone economy also depends on further strength in the euro; he said it could easily break above $1.51 if Wall street gains on Friday. (Additional reporting by Jamie McGeever and Ian Chua in London; Editing by Leslie Adler)

FOREX-Sterling plunge lifts dollar, euro


Sterling slides vs dollar, euro on UK Q3 GDP shock
* Euro zone data, sterling slide boost euro vs dollar
* UK data casts doubt on prospect of synchronized recovery
By Steven C. Johnson
NEW YORK, Oct 23 - The dollar and euro rose on Friday against sterling, which tumbled after data showing the UK economy was still mired in recession stunned investors who had expected it to return to growth.
News the British economy shrank 0.4 percent between July and September knocked sterling off a six-week peak against the dollar, causing it to shed more than three cents on the day.
The euro also vaulted higher against the pound, and generally upbeat euro zone data, underlining expectations of a recovery in the third quarter, kept it near a 14-month peak above $1.50, while the UK data quashed hopes the downturn was ending and rekindled talk that the Bank of England will have to extend its emergency asset-purchasing program next month.
"No doubt people will continue now to speculate there'll be more quantitative easing coming down the pipe in November and all of these things are not sterling positive," said Jeremy Stretch, strategist at Rabobank.
The pound was last down 1.3 percent at $1.6407 , off a session low of $1.6367 but still far from its six-week peak above $1.6693 touched earlier. The euro rose 1.4 percent to 91.63 pence .
For more on UK GDP, which posted its sixth straight quarter of contraction, the longest stretch on record, see [ID:nLN250789]. For a graphic showing UK GDP growth, click here: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/109/UK_Q3GDP1009.gif
The UK economy's woes cast some doubt on the prospect of a synchronized recovery across world economies, particularly after dovish comments from Swedish and Canadian central bank officials earlier this week.
Sterling's sharp fall helped keep the dollar in positive territory against a basket of currencies <.DXY>. The euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.5035 , drawing support from an index of German business morale showing euro zone recovery on track.
In Asian trade, the euro took out option barriers at $1.5050 and peaked at a fresh 14-month high of $1.5061.
YEN PRESSURED, EURO RETAINS MOMENTUM
The euro has appreciated more than 7 percent against the dollar this year, and gains have accelerated in recent months as markets brace for the Federal Reserve to hold U.S. interest rates at record lows well into next year.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans' said Thursday that the Fed isn't particularly worried about inflation right now but is monitoring it closely.
"The risks continue that we're going to grind higher in euro/dollar and markets will continue to use dips to buy at better levels," Stretch said.
The dollar also rose 0.6 percent to 91.97 yen , a one-month high, as the spread between 10-year U.S. and Japanese government bond yields widened to 210 basis points in favor of the dollar. That makes U.S. bonds more attractive to Japanese investors.
The yen also suffered after Japan's banking minister said the country needed a second extra budget worth around 10 trillion yen, feeding expectations that government debt would rise and a privatization scheme be revised.
Earlier Friday, euro zone purchasing managers indices and the Ifo index of German business morale showed the bloc's economic recovery to be generally on track.
It was something of a mixed bag, however, with the PMIs well above forecasts but the Ifo numbers not quite as robust as analysts had expected.
Boris Schlossberg, director of research at GFT Forex in New York, added that the outlook for the broader euro zone economy also depends on how much stronger the euro gets, which he says could easily break above $1.51 if Wall street gains on Friday.

Forex Market Update

Friday, Oct 23, 2009, 12:57 GMT
By John Hardy Consultant/FX Strategist Saxo Bank
GBP back in the doghouse after miserable GDP figure. EUR looking a bit lonely at the top?
JPY weaker still on weak bonds as US Treasury announces another record treasury auction next week.
MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
Australia Q3 Import/Export Price Index out at -3.0%/-9.6% QoQ vs. -2.8%/-4.7% expected, respectively
Germany Oct. Preliminary PMI Manufacturing out at 51.1 vs. 50.1 expected and 49.6 in Sep.
Germany Oct. Preliminary PMI Services out at 50.9 vs. 52.5 expected and 52.1 in Sep.
Germany Oct. IFO Business Climate out at 91.9 vs. 92 expected and 91.3 in Sep.
EuroZone Oct. Preliminary PMI Manufacturing out at 50.7 vs. 50.0 expected and 49.3 in Sep.
EuroZone Oct. Preliminary PMI Services out t 52.3 vs. 51.3 expected and 50.9 in Sep.
UK Q3 GDP first estimate out at -0.4% QoQ and -5.2% YoY vs. +0.2%/-4.6% expected, respectively
UK Sep. BBA Loans for House Purchase rose to 42088 vs. 39300 expected and 40841 in Aug.
EuroZone Aug. Industrial New Orders rose 2.0% MoM vs. 1.2% expected
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
(All times GMT)
US Sep. Existing Home Sales (1400)
US Fed's Kohn to Speak (1530)
Australia Q3 Producer Price Index (Sun 0030)
Market Comments:
Pound whacked on negative GDP surpriseThe GDP report from the UK today triggered a massive slide in sterling as the data was a very negative surprise in light of the recent pound appreciation. The fall in GDP officially made this recession the longest since 1955, when records were first initiated. It's rather remarkable that the economy was unable to manage the slight expected uptick in quarterly growth after the recent quarters of unprecedented public support to the economy. Especially disappointing in light of the collapsing pound sterling of the last year is a failure of manufacturing to recover more strongly and provide the lift one would expect from the ability to price goods more competitively. Today's move looks to have set a firm ceiling for the pound for now, and EURGBP may have a go back at the recent highs, while GBPUSD may remain capped for some time with the spectacular evening star formation of the last three days (assuming GBPUSD closes today around current levels.
Yen's diminishing yield appealThe Yen lost even more ground into today' US session as bonds slipped to new lows (close to recent highs in yield just under 3.50% on key US 10-year benchmark). Some credit for the slide in bonds is given to the US Treasury's announcement of another record treasury auction next week, with $123 billion in government paper on the block. The auction will include $44 billion of 2-year notes, $41 billion of 5-year notes, $31 billion of 7-year notes and $7 billion in TIPS. In the coming year, the Treasury is going to need to extend the duration of its auctions in order to finance the profligate spending of the Obama administration and Congress, so we can expect plenty more records to fall this year - especially in the 10-year and 30-year categories. The US budget deficit was some 10% of GDP for the fiscal year ending September 30, the highest since the second World War. So far, demand has been very healthy at recent auctions, and with yields at key levels here, the bond market may be the center of attention next week. We looked at EURJPY and whether it is overpriced yesterday. It appears from the latest action that JPY crosses are focusing more on the long end of the curve than the short end, which has gone nowhere of late.
US Existing Home SalesUS Existing Home Sales will be released today and may show a strong reading due to the first-time home buyer credit, which is expiring December 1. While Congress is debating extending the measure - even to any buyer of a home rather than first time buyers only, any renewal and extension is likely to have a far smaller impact than the original initiative. After all, first time home buyers are acting as if they have a deadline at present, so the supply of such buyers would be far smaller after the deadline. As for non-first time buyers, most of them probably own a home in which their equity has declined significantly in recent years. (60% of home buyers in 2006 and 2007 owe more than their houses are worth, according to a recent estimate by Fitch). And in the longer run, such measures only move forward demand at the cost of demand further down the road. It's all very short sighted and a rather pathetic way to continue to artificially prop up home prices. The more important development for house prices will be the winding down of the Fed's $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed security purchases next March and the potential effect this will have on mortgage rates.
ECB and the strong EuroThe ECB's Nowotny was out jawboning again about the obvious problem of the EURUSD trading at 1.5000 while the Chinese have not budged the yuan. He said the China is "massively influencing" markets, including the Euro. His other comments on the Euro economy were relatively sanguine, indicating that inflation would remain subdued in the medium term and growth would likely turn positive next year, even if exist strategies are "premature". Clearly, the biggest problem facing the EuroZone currently is the strength of its currency.
Looking aheadThe focus today for FX is on the inflection point reached in bonds today ahead of the NY open and whether equities will be able to punch through higher once again after trading in a relative constrained range for most of the week. The Euro looks a bit lonely on top, considering that CAD, GBP and JPY are all well off their recent highs versus the greenback. Interest rate differentials make EURUSD looked a tad overpriced now -- though it appears that the USD will continue to focus mostly on the ups and downs in risk appetite.
Next week's US economic calendar highlights include Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Durable Goods Orders on Wednesday and the most important: first estimate of Q3 GDP on Thursday. Two interesting central banks are out announcing rates next week: Norges Bank looks ready to make its first hike on Tuesday and New Zealand will announce rates as well.
Have a great weekend!
Chart: GBPUSDGBPUSD in a spectacular reversal today that, if we close approximately at current levels or lower, creates an evening star reversal somewhat similar to the previous two major reversals. It certainly appears the action is capped for now, though a one day reversal does not a new trend make. Next major focus will be the 21-day moving average, which is still rather far off to the downside, though it has been a clear focus in recent months.

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Less Liquidity — Stronger Euro. Or Not?December 4th, 2009


The single European currency tried to break the latest resistance level, set 8 days ago, as the future of the macroeconomic conditions around the euro were revised after Jean-Claude Trichet’s statement today. But, unfortunately for the euro, the growth wasn’t long lived.